Question No. 13

　　In an attempt to improve highway safety, Prunty County last year lowered its speed limit from55 to 45 miles per hour on all county highways. But this effort has failed: the number of accidentshas not decreased, and, based on reports by the highway patrol, many drivers are exceeding thespeed limit. Prunty County should instead undertake the same kind of road improvement projectthat Butler County completed five years ago: increasing lane widths, resurfacing rough highwaysand improving visibility at dangerous intersections. Today, major Butler County roads still have a55mph speed limit, yet there were 25 percent fewer reported accidents in Butler County this pastyear than there were five years ago.

　　Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate theargument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the arqument.

　　Instruction:

　　短文的结论: It is concluded that Prunty County should undertake the same kind of roadimprovement project that Butler County completed five years ago to replace its reduction in thespeed limit 话: The missing of the crucial pieces of evidence renders the logic of the argumentvulnerable..

　　Body

　　逻辑点(1):[假/ 错误分母] :

　　首先指出欠缺的evidence是什么: The first piece of evidence the author omits to provide is thetotal traffic volumes before the speed limit and after 然后，具体分析欠缺的evidence的对于文章逻辑的影响: A large number of accidents out of a large traffic volume may represent a small chance otaccidents. Likewise, a small number of accidents may represent great incidence of accidents if thetraffic volume is small. lt is the proportion of the accidents to the total traffic volume that decidesthe likelihood - the rate - of accidents, and the reduced rate is the key to the improved level ofhighway safety, whereas the decrease in the number of accidents is not without knowing the totanumber of cars on the highway.

　　[注意: 论述时的措辞思路不一，只要说清楚明白即可,

　　措辞方面没有的的答案，但是逻辑的正确性。]

　　逻辑点(2):[地点差异] :

　　首先指出欠缺的evidence是什么: Another missing piece of evidence is the similarity betweenthe causes of accidents in Prunty County and those in Butler County. 然后， 具体分析欠缺的evidence的对于文章逻辑的影响: The effectiveness of a road improvement project may vary from county tocounty. In other words, the project may be effective in Butler County and ineffective in PruntyCounty. lf the causes of accidents in the two counties are different, Butler County's experience maynot be as transferable as thought.

　　逻辑点(3): [它因] :

　　The reduction in the number of accidents in Butler County may not be attributed to the roadimprovement project but to a number of other factors, such as the decreased traffic volume,drivers' improved driving behavior and safety awareness. However, the argument provides noevidence to rule out these possibilities, the causative relation between the project and thedecreased number of accidents is rendered vulnerable.

　　逻辑点(4):[时间断点] :

　　None of the annual numbers of accidents two years ago, three years ago and four years agoare known. The lack of the crucial evidence renders it unclear that the project has been effective orthat last year was an instance that the accidents decreased for other reasons as is mentionedbefore. Without having the evidence, it is fair to believe that the annual number of accidents in thepast few years immediately after Butler County’ s road improvement project increased, and as aresult, the project may not be as effective as thought

　　逻辑点(5): [偷换概念] :

　　The author confuses reported accidents with accidents that actually took place. 首先指出欠的evidence是什么: A piece of evidence that is missing at this point is whether every accident thatoccurs is reported.然后，具体分析欠缺的evidence的对于文章逻辑的影响: t is not unlikely that someof the accidents were not reported when they happened, and as a result, it is likely that the totanumber of accidents did not decrease.

　　[可能还有逻辑点(6、7、8 ...): 写4到5个逻辑点即可。]

　　Conclusion

　　Unless the author provides the aforementioned evidence, which is however omitted in the lineof reasoning, Prunty County should not negate its reduction in the speed limit or to undertake thesame kind of road improvement project that Butler County completed five years ago.